Socio-economic Impact of Natural Disasters in the Republic of Serbia
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Abstract
The rapid technological and economic development caused the emergence of new risks and influenced the change in the frequency and intensity of the effects of those already known in the second half of the twentieth century. Considering that characteristics of natural disasters vary in space and time, the aim of this paper is to perform a spatial and temporal analysis of their impact on the society and economic activities in the Republic of Serbia. For this purpose, data from the "DesInventar" database were used for the period from 1996 to 2019. Multidimensional data analysis shows that the effects of catastrophic risks are greater in less developed regions. Moreover, low-intensity disasters, which effects are generally not regarded as relevant from a macroeconomic point of view, further affect sustainable local development. These catastrophes in the territory of the Republic of Serbia affect especially the region of Sumadija and Western Serbia, causing social, economic and environmental problems. From the aspect of impact on economic activities, it can be concluded that the effects of these disasters, in relation to extreme disasters, significantly affect agricultural production in the entire territory of the Republic of Serbia causing damage to agriculture. From this point of view, the results of this paper point to significant aspects of the effects of natural disasters, as well as potential ways to manage catastrophic risks in the Republic of Serbia. Therefore, they can be considered a notable input for policy makers, insurance companies and other relevant stakeholders in catastrophe risk management.
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References
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Landeros-Mugica, Karina, Javier Urbina-Soria, and Irasema Alcántara-Ayala. 2016. "The good, the bad and the ugly: on the interactions among experience, exposure and commitment with reference to landslide risk perception in México." Natural Hazards, 80(3): 1515-37.
Lukic, Tin, Milivoj B. Gavrilov, Slobodan B. Markovic, Blaz Komac, Matija Zorn, Dragan Mladjan, Jasmina Djordjevic et al. 2013. "Classification of natural disasters between the legislation and application: experience of the Republic of Serbia." Acta geographica Slovenica, 53(1): 149-64.
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Noy, Ilan. 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters." Journal of Development economics, 88(2): 221-31.
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Oh, Chang Hoon, and Rafael Reuveny. 2010. "Climatic natural disasters, political risk, and international trade." Global Environmental Change, 20(2): 243-54.
Panwar, Vikrant, and Subir Sen. 2019. "Economic impact of natural disasters: An empirical re-examination". Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 13(1): 109-139.
Popp, Aaron. 2006. "The effects of natural disasters on long run growth." Major Themes in Economics, 8(1): 61-82.
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Stromberg, David. 2007. "Natural disasters, economic development, and humanitarian aid." Journal of Economic perspectives 21(3): 199-222.
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Tol, Richard S. 1999. "Economic analysis of natural disasters." Climate, change and risk: 308-27.
Toya, Hideki, and Mark Skidmore. 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters." Economics letters, 94(1): 20-25.
UNDP. 2015. "Sustainable development goals." https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals.html
Vigdor, Jacob. 2008. "The economic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(4): 135-54.
Vukovic, Ana J., Mirjam P. Vujadinovic, Sonja M. Rendulic, Vladimir S. Djurdjevic, Mirjana M. Ruml, Violeta P. Babic, and Dunja P. Popovic. 2018. "Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100." Thermal Science, 22(6), Part A: 2267-80.
World Bank. 2015. "Coping with Floods, Strengthening Growth". South East Europe Regular Economic Report 7.
Albala-Bertrand, Jose-Miguel. 1993. "Political economy of large natural disasters: with special reference to developing countries." OUP Catalogue.
Alcantara-Ayala, Irasema. 2002. "Geomorphology, natural hazards, vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries." Geomorphology, 47(2-4):107-24.
Alfieri, Lorenzo, Luc Feyen, Francesco Dottori, and Alessandra Bianchi. 2015. "Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios." Global Environmental Change, 35: 199-212.
Baas, Stephan, Monica Trujillo, and Niccolo Lombardi. 2015. "Impact of disasters on agriculture and food security". Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations.
Banica, Alexandru, Karima Kourtit, and Peter Nijkamp. 2020. "Natural disasters as a development opportunity: a spatial economic resilience interpretation". Review of Regional Research: 1-27.
Below, Regina, Angelika Wirtz, and Debarati Guha-Sapir. 2009. "Disaster category classification and peril terminology for operational purposes". Universite Catholique de Louvain Working Paper 264.
Berlemann, Michael, Max Friedrich Steinhardt, and Jascha Tutt. 2015. "Do natural disasters stimulate individual saving? Evidence from a natural experiment in a highly developed country." SOEP paper on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 763, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin.
Botzen, WJ Wouter, Olivier Deschenes, and Mark Sanders. 2019. "The economic impacts of natural disasters: A review of models and empirical studies". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 13(2): 167-188.
Cavallo, Eduardo A., and Ilan Noy. 2009. "The economics of natural disasters: a survey." Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, IDB Working Paper Series, IDB-WP-124.
Cavallo, Eduardo, Sebastian Galiani, Ilan Noy, and Juan Pantano. 2013. "Catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth." Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(5): 1549-61.
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus, Jaroslava Hlouskova, and Michael Obersteiner. 2008. "Natural disasters as creative destruction? Evidence from developing countries." Economic Inquiry, 46(2): 214-26.
Cvetkovic, Vladimir, M., and Slavoljub Dragicevic. 2014. "Spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters." Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 64(3): 293-309.
Dilley, Maxx, Robert S. Chen, Uwe Deichmann, Arthur L. Lerner-Lam, and Margaret Arnold. 2005. Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
Dilley, Maxx, Robert S. Chen, Uwe Deichmann, Arthur L. Lerner-Lam, and Margaret Arnold. 2005. Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Djukic, Petar. 2012. "Sustainable Development Under Impact of the Crisis – Global and National Dimensions". Economic Analysis, 45(1-2): 1-18.
Djuricin, Sonja, and Dusko Bodroza. 2013. "The impact of drought on yield position of the group of enterprises from agriculture sector." Economics of agriculture, 60(1): 25-38.
Gavrilovic, Ljiljana. 2007. "Prirodne nepogode kao faktor ugrozavanja zivotne sredine." In Zbornik radova Prvog kongresa srpskih geografa, 69-76. Beograd: Srpsko geografsko drustvo.
Gu, Danan. 2019. "Exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters for world's cities." United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs Technical Paper 2019/4.
Guha-Sapir, Debarati, David Hargitt, and Philippe Hoyois. 2004. Thirty years of natural disasters 1974-2003: The numbers. Louvain-la-Neuve: Presses Universitaires de Louvain.
Hallegatte, Stephane, and Patrice Dumas. 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change." Ecological Economics, 68(3): 777-86.
Jonkman, Sebastiaan N., Marija Bockarjova, Matthijs Kok, and Patrizia Bernardini. 2008. "Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands." Ecological economics, 66(1): 77-90.
Jovanovic, Slobodan. 2014. " Legal aspects of natural catastrophe insurance." Pravo-teorija i praksa, 31(7-9): 16-28.
Kellenberg, Derek, and A. Mushfiq Mobarak. 2011. "The economics of natural disasters." Annual Review of Resource Economics, 3(1): 297-312.
Kim, Chul Kyu. 2010. "The effects of natural disasters on long-run economic growth." University of Michigan PhD dissertation.
Kimball, Ralph, and Margy Ross. 2015. The Kimball group reader: Relentlessly practical tools for data warehousing and business intelligence remastered collection. Indianapolis, IN: John Wiley & Sons.
Koetsier, Ian. 2017. "The fiscal impact of natural disasters." USE Discussion paper series 17(17).
Kovacevic, Miladin. 2018. Anketa o strukturi poljoprivrednih gazdinstava, 2018 – Zemljiste. Beograd: Republicki zavod za statistiku.
Kovacevic-Majkic, Jelena, Milena Panic, Dragana Miljanovic, and Radmila Miletic. 2014. "Vulnerability to natural disasters in Serbia: spatial and temporal comparison." Natural hazards, 72(2): 945-68.
Kron, Wolfgang, Markus Steuer, Petra Low, and Angelika Wirtz. 2012. "How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database - analysis of flood losses." Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 12(3): 535-50.
Landeros-Mugica, Karina, Javier Urbina-Soria, and Irasema Alcántara-Ayala. 2016. "The good, the bad and the ugly: on the interactions among experience, exposure and commitment with reference to landslide risk perception in México." Natural Hazards, 80(3): 1515-37.
Lukic, Tin, Milivoj B. Gavrilov, Slobodan B. Markovic, Blaz Komac, Matija Zorn, Dragan Mladjan, Jasmina Djordjevic et al. 2013. "Classification of natural disasters between the legislation and application: experience of the Republic of Serbia." Acta geographica Slovenica, 53(1): 149-64.
Luo, Kevin, and Tomoko Kinugasa. 2018. "Do natural disasters influence long-term saving?: Assessing the impact of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake on household saving rates using synthetic control." Kobe University, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe, Japan, Discussion Paper 1804.
Naumann, Gustavo, Jonathan Spinoni, Jürgen V. Vogt, and Paulo Barbosa. 2015. "Assessment of drought damages and their uncertainties in Europe." Environmental Research Letters, 10(12): 124013.
Noy, Ilan, and Aekkanush Nualsri. 2007. "What do exogenous shocks tell us about growth theories?." University of California, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics (SCIIE), Santa Cruz, CA, Working Paper 07-16.
Noy, Ilan, and Tam Bang Vu. 2010. "The economics of natural disasters in a developing country: The case of Vietnam." Journal of Asian Economics, 21(4): 345-54.
Noy, Ilan. 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters." Journal of Development economics, 88(2): 221-31.
O'Brien, Karen, Siri Eriksen, Linda Sygna, and Lars Otto Naess. 2006. "Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway." Journal of the Human Environment, 35(2): 50-56.
Official Gazette of RS. 2011. National Strategy for Protection and Rescue in Emergency Situations.
Official Gazette of RS. 2018. Law on disaster risk reduction and emergency management.
Oh, Chang Hoon, and Rafael Reuveny. 2010. "Climatic natural disasters, political risk, and international trade." Global Environmental Change, 20(2): 243-54.
Panwar, Vikrant, and Subir Sen. 2019. "Economic impact of natural disasters: An empirical re-examination". Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 13(1): 109-139.
Popp, Aaron. 2006. "The effects of natural disasters on long run growth." Major Themes in Economics, 8(1): 61-82.
Posner, Richard A. 2004. Catastrophe: risk and response. New York: Oxford University Press.
Radovic, Vesela, Radovan Pejanovic, and Dusan Marincic. 2015. "Extreme weather and climatic events on agriculture as a risk of sustainable development." Economics of Agriculture, 62(1): 181-91.
Ranke, Ulrich. 2016. "Natural Disasters: Definitions and Classification." In Natural Disaster Risk Management, 55-182. Cham: Springer.
Reddy, G. Satyanarayana, Rallabandi Srinivasu, M. Poorna Rao, and Srikanth Reddy Rikkula. 2010. "Data Warehousing, Data Mining, OLAP and OLTP Technologies are essential elements to support decision-making process in industries." International Journal on Computer Science and Engineering, 2(9): 2865-73.
RS Government. 2014. Floods in the Republic of Serbia 2014. http://www.obnova.gov.rs/uploads/useruploads/Documents/Izvestaj-o-proceni-potreba-za-oporavak-i-obnovu-posledica-poplava.pdf
Sadia, Batool, M. A. Bashir, Mian Nawaz, and Khalid Zaman. 2013. "Effects of Disaster Related Mortality on Gross Domestic Product in Pakistan." International Journal of Ecology and Development, 24(1): 62-80.
Sardar, Asif, Sajid Amin Javed, and Rafi Amir-ud-Din. 2016. "Natural Disasters and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Enquiry into the Floods Related Hazards’ Triad." Department of Environmental Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan, Working Paper 10.
Skidmore, Mark, and Hideki Toya. 2002. "Do natural disasters promote long‐run growth?." Economic inquiry, 40(4): 664-87.
Strobl, Eric. 2012. "The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions." Journal of Development economics, 97(1): 130-41.
Stromberg, David. 2007. "Natural disasters, economic development, and humanitarian aid." Journal of Economic perspectives 21(3): 199-222.
Todorovic, Zoran. 2018. "Green Economy and Indicators of Sustainable and Ecological Development." Economic Analysis, 51(1-2): 103-19.
Tol, Richard S. 1999. "Economic analysis of natural disasters." Climate, change and risk: 308-27.
Toya, Hideki, and Mark Skidmore. 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters." Economics letters, 94(1): 20-25.
UNDP. 2015. "Sustainable development goals." https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals.html
Vigdor, Jacob. 2008. "The economic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(4): 135-54.
Vukovic, Ana J., Mirjam P. Vujadinovic, Sonja M. Rendulic, Vladimir S. Djurdjevic, Mirjana M. Ruml, Violeta P. Babic, and Dunja P. Popovic. 2018. "Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100." Thermal Science, 22(6), Part A: 2267-80.
World Bank. 2015. "Coping with Floods, Strengthening Growth". South East Europe Regular Economic Report 7.