Serbia-China bilateral trade relations: major challenges and opportunities
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Abstract
Considering the growing presence of China in Serbia and deepening the overall bilateral relations, the main objective of the paper is to analyze the major trends and changes in the bilateral merchandise trade between both countries. The paper also focuses on exploring the main challenges as well as determinants for enhancement of trade relationships in the upcoming period.
The total trade between Serbia and China has been steadily growing over the last decade. The value of total trade in 2019 compared to 2010 is increased by twice, the value of imported and exported goods grew twice and almost 45 times, respectively. Despite the rapid growth, the Trade Intensity Index shows that trade between Serbia and China is under-represented, implying there is a space for improvement.
Some obstacles hinder trade relations between Serbia and China. One of the main challenges stems from the fact that China shares its influence in Serbia using investments rather than trade. On the other side, Serbia does not have enough capacity to meet Chines market demand, which is among other things is a result of the domination of low value-added products in the total Serbian exports.
In order to overcome the obstacles, Serbia should focus on its comparative advantage as well as attracting the Chinese investment in the strategically important sectors. Furthermore, it is essential for Serbia to develop a strategic approach to trade policy towards China, which implies better promoting of export growth, relevant support of Serbian exporters as well as more active engagement around trade matters during official negotiations with China.
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Zuokui, Liu. 2013. "The Pragmatic Cooperation between China and CEE: Characteristics, Problems and Policy Suggestions." Institute of European Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 7, no. 6: 1-9.
Baranenko, Elena, and Mihajlo Đukić. 2012. "Ways for enhancement of export activities", Managing Structural Changes - Trends and Requirements: 520-536.
Bastian, Jens. 2017. "The potential for growth through Chinese infrastructure investments in Central and South-Eastern Europe along the “Balkan Silk Road". European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Athens/London.
Brown, Arthur Joseph. 1948. Applied Economics: Aspects of the World Economy in War and Peace, by AJ Brown, G. Allen and Unwin.
Chen, Bo, and Yao Li. 2014. "Analyzing bilateral trade barriers under global trade context: a gravity model adjusted trade intensity index approach." Review of Development Economics 18, no. 2 : 326-339.
Chen, Xin, and Yang Chengyu. 2017. "An quantitative analysis on China-CEC economic and trade cooperation", Review of International Affairs (04866096) 68.
Dimitrijević, Duško. 2017. "Chinese investments in Serbia—a Joint pledge for the future of the new Silk road." Baltic Journal of European Studies 7, no. 1 (2017): 64-83.
Éltető, Andrea, and Ágnes Szunomár. 2016. "Chinese investment and trade strengthening ties with Central and Eastern Europe". International Journal of Business and Management, Vol. IV(1), pp.
Grier Jean Heilman. 2020. "China: Revising Tendering and Bidding Law", Perspectives on trade, available at: https://trade.djaghe.com/?p=6363
Hackaj, Ardian. 2018. "China and Western Balkans." Cooperation and Development Institute, Tirana.
Halilbašić, Muamer, Snježana Brkić, and Vedrana Bosić. 2015. "The Comparative Analysis of Export Competitiveness of ex-Yu Countries." Economic analysis 48, no. 1-2: 108-129.
Hartwell, Christopher, and Katarzyna Sidlo. 2017. "Serbia’s cooperation with China, the European Union, Russia and the United States of America." Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies, Brussel.
Holzner, Mario, and Monika Schwarzhappel. 2018. Infrastructure Investment in the Western Balkans: A First Analysis. No. 432. wiiw Research Report.
Jacimovic, D., R. Dragutinović Mitrović, P. Bjelić, K. Tianping, and M. Rajkovic. 2018. "The role of Chinese investments in the bilateral exports of new EU member states and Western Balkan countries." Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja 31, no. 1: 1185-1197.
Jacoby, Wade. "Different cases, different faces: Chinese investment in Central and Eastern Europe." Asia Europe Journal 12, no. 1-2 (2014): 199-214.
Jakóbowski, Jakub. 2016. "China’s foreign direct investments within the ‘16+ 1’cooperation formula: strategy, institutions, results".
Jelisavac Trošić, Sanja, Biljana Stojanović-Višić, and Vladeta Petrović. "New opportunities for further improvement of economic cooperation between Serbia and China." The Review of International Affairs 69 (2018): 21-35.
Kojima, Kiyoshi. 1964. "The pattern of international trade among advanced countries." Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics 5, no. 1: 16-36.
Matura, Tamas. 2019. "China–CEE trade, investment and politics." Europe-Asia Studies 71, no. 3: 388-407.
McCaleb, Agnieszka, and Ágnes Szunomár. 2017. "Chinese foreign direct investment in central and Eastern Europe.": 121-140.
Ministry of finance of the Republic of Serbia (MFIN). 2020. Tekuća makroekonomska kretanja, septembar 2020, available at: https://www.mfin.gov.rs/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/prezentacija_novo_sr-pdf.pdf
Musabelliu, Marsela. 2017. "China’s Belt and Road Initiative Extension to central and eastern European countries-sixteen nations, five summits, many challenges." Croatian International Relations Review 23, no. 78: 57-76.
SeeNews, 2020. China approves imports of dairy products of three Serbian firms, available at: https://seenews.com/news/china-approves-imports-of-dairy-products-of-three-serbian-firms-718242
Serbian Monitor. 2019. Serbia to export meat and dairy to China, available at: https://www.serbianmonitor.com/en/serbia-to-export-meat-and-dairy-to-china/.
Song, W. 2018. "China’s Long March to Central and Eastern Europe". European Review, 26(4), 755-766.
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. 2020. External trade database, available at: https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/oblasti/spoljna-trgovina/.
Šteinbuka, Inna, Tatyana Muravska, and Andris Kuznieks. 2017. "Cooperation formats of China and Europe: Synergies and divergences." Baltic Journal of European Studies 7, no. 1: 98-118.
Szunomár, Ágnes, and Zsuzsánna Biedermann. 2014. "Chinese outward FDI in Europe and the Central and Eastern European region within a global context", IWE Working Papers (207)
Szunomár, Ágnes, Karindi Liisi and Andreea Leonte. 2020. "Economic relations: A sugar cane, or a sugar-coated stick? ", in Empty shell no more: China’s growing footprint in Central and Eastern Europe, policy paper.
The Government of Republic of Serbia. 2019. Several agreements with Chinese companies signed, available at: https://www.srbija.gov.rs/vest/en/140237/several-agreements-with-chinese-companies-signed.php
The State Office of China. 2020. China's exports, imports up in June, available at http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202007/14/content_WS5f0d4583c6d06c4091250f1e.html
Tianping, Kong. 2015. "16+1 cooperation framework: Genesis, characteristics and prospect", Medjunarodni problemi 67, no. 2-3: 167-183.
Tonchev, Plamen. 2017. China's Road: into the Western Balkans. European Union Institute for Security
Turcsányi, Richard. 2014 "Central and Eastern Europe’s courtship with China: Trojan horse within the EU." European Institute for Asian Studies, EU-Asia at a Glance, January.
UN Comtrade. 2020. Database, available at: https://comtrade.un.org/data/.
Vangeli, Anastas. 2017. "China's engagement with the sixteen countries of central, East and Southeast Europe under the belt and road initiative." China & World Economy 25, no. 5: 101-124. Studies (EUISS).
Vladisavljev, Stefan. 2019. "Challenges of cooperation between China and Western Balkans", in West side of Eurasia: Balkans, available at https://avim.org.tr/images/uploads/Yayin/AvrasyaDunyasiSayi-5.pdf
World Bank. 2010. Trade Indicators, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/witshelp/Content/Utilities/e1.trade_indicators.htm
World Trade Organization (WTO). 2020. Trade shows signs of rebound from COVID-19, recovery still uncertain, available at: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr862_e.htm
Xin, Chen. 2012. "Trade and economic cooperation between China and CEE countries." Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing. Working Paper Series on European Studies 6, no. 2: 17.
Xinhua News Agency. 2019. Serbia, China agree to boost agri-trade, available at: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-06/17/c_138150962.htm
Xinhua News Agency. 2020. Interview: Serbia looks to broaden trade links with China at upcoming CIIE, available at: http://www.china-ceec.org/eng/sbhz_1/t1827438.htm
Yan, Shaohua. 2019. "The ‘16+ 1’Framework and China-EU Cooperation in the Western Balkans: A Region Building Perspective." Australian & New Zealand Journal of European Studies 11, no. 1.
Zuokui, Liu. 2013. "The Pragmatic Cooperation between China and CEE: Characteristics, Problems and Policy Suggestions." Institute of European Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 7, no. 6: 1-9.