The Impact of Import, Export and FDI on the Economic Growth of the Western Balkans Countries

Main Article Content

Darko Marjanović
Isidora Beraha
Vladimir Simović

Abstract

Macroeconomic stability is one of the important factors influencing the growth and development of national economies in today’s modern global economy. Economic policy should create conditions for macroeconomic stability and economic growth based on increased investment, exports, savings, productivity, and competitiveness, while reducing macroeconomic imbalances, especially the fiscal deficit, inflation, and the current account deficit. In order to achieve macroeconomic stability, as well as sustainable economic growth, it is important to pursue a rational economic policy and carry out accelerated structural reforms. The main objective of the paper is to analyze the impact of key indicators, i.e., export and import of goods and services and FDI on economic growth of the Western Balkans countries. Such an analysis is important to show the state of the economy and predict its stability. The research focuses on the countries of the Western Balkans, while the analysis uses secondary data from the UNCTAD database for the period 2011-2020. The research results indicate that Serbia is progressing much faster than other countries of the Western Balkans. In the coming period, a growth trend can be expected in all Western Balkan countries, which will result in better economic development and increasing openness to new investments.

Article Details

Section

Articles

References

Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 2021. www.bhas.gov.ba/?lang=en (accessed September 30, 2021).

Bakari, S., & Mabrouki, M. 2017. “Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Panama.” Journal of Smart Economic Growth, 2 (1): 67-79.

Central Bank of Montenegro. 2021. www.cbcg.me/en (accessed September 29, 2021).

Costantiello, A. Laureti, L., & Leogrande, A. 2021. “Estimation and Machine Learning Prediction of Imports of Goods in European Countries in the Period 2010-2019“. Munich, MPRA Paper No. 108663.

Domazet, I., & Marjanović, D. 2018. “FDI as a Factor of Improving the Competitiveness of Developing Countries: FDI and Competitiveness.” In Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and Opportunities for Developing Economies in the World Market, ed. Venkataramanaiah Malapeti and C. Mangala Gowri, 82-104. Hershey: IGI Global.

Hagemejer, J., & Tyrowicz, J. 2011. “Not All That Glitters: The Direct Effects of Privatization Through Foreign Investment.” Eastern European Economics, 49 (3): 89-111.

Iamsiraroj, S., & Ulubaşoğlu, M. A. 2015. †žForeign direct investment and economic growth: A real relationship or wishful thinking?“ Economic modelling, 51: 200-213.

INSTAT. 2021. www.instat.gov.al/en/about-us (accessed September 30, 2021).

Jovičić, E., Stevanović, S., & Beraha, I. 2020. “Serbia†China Bilateral Trade Relations: Major Challenges and Opportunities.” Economic Analysis, 53(20): 133-144.

Marjanović, D. & Domazet, I. 2018. Improving macro competitiveness - fiscal aspects. Belgrade: Institute of Economic Sciences.

Marjanović, D., & Domazet, I. 2021. “Foreign Direct Investments: A Key Factor for Business Globalization.” In Institutional, Economic, and Social Impacts of Globalization and Liberalization, ed. Yilmaz Bayar, 96-116. Hershey: IGI Global.

Marjanović, D., & Đukić, M. 2020. “Western Balkan Countries as an Attractive Investment Destination.” Economic Analysis, 53 (2): 109-120.

Marjanović, D., & Zubović, J. 2020. “The Analysis of Main Macroeconomic Indicators - A Comparative Study of Serbia and Selected SEE Countries.“ In Security Challenges and the Place of the Balkans and Serbia in a Changing World, ed. Ana Jović-Lazić and Alexis Troude, 331-345. Belgrade: Institute of International Politics and Economics: Faculty of Security Studies.

Marjanović, D., Domazet, I., & Simović, V. 2020. “Influence of tax incentives on the business of foreign investors in Serbia.“ TEME, XLIV (3): 969-984.

MONSTAT. 2021. www.monstat.org/eng/index.php (accessed September 28, 2021).

Mukhamediyev, B., Kudasheva, T., & Khitakhunov, A. 2018. “Interdependence of Macroeconomic Indicators and Inequality in Kazakhstan and its Main Trading Partners.“ Eurasian Economic Perspectives, 75-88.

National Bank of North Macedonia. 2021. www.nbrm.mk/pocetna-en.nspx (accessed September 27, 2021).

Nguyen, H.T. 2011. “Exports, Imports, FDI and Economic Growth.“ University of Colorado at Boulder, Working Paper No. 11-03.

Pjanić, M., & Mitrašević, M. 2021. “Strane direktne investicije u Srbiji.“ Culture of Polis, XVIII (44): 253-265.

Sabir, S., Rafique, A., & Abbas, K. 2019. “Institutions and FDI: evidence from developed and developing countries.“ Financial Innovation, 5 (8).

Sanfey, P., Milatović, J., & Kresic, A. 2016. “How the Western Balkans can catch up.“ EBRD Working Paper No. 185.

Sédillot, F., & Pain, N. 2003. “Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries.“ OECD Economics Department, Working Papers, No. 364.

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. 2021. www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/ (accessed September 29, 2021).

Tahir, M., & Azid, T. 2015. “The relationship between international trade openness and economic growth in the developing economies: Some new dimensions.“ Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 8 (2): 123-139.

Tas, N., Hepsen, A., & Önder, E. 2013. “Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth using Panel Data.“ Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, 2(3): 41-53.

The Bank of Albania. 2021. bankofalbania.org/home/ (accessed September 28, 2021).

The Central Bank of the Bosnia and Herzegovina. 2021. www.cbbh.ba/?lang=en (accessed September 30, 2021).

The State Statistical Office – Republic of North Macedonia. 2021. www.stat.gov.mk/Default_en.aspx (accessed September 29, 2021).

Ulaşan, B. 2014. “Openness to international trade and economic growth: A cross-country empirical investigation.“ Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Papers 14/07.

UNCTAD. 2021. www.unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/reportfolders/reportfolders.aspx (accessed September 22, 2021).

The Government of the Republic of Serbia. 2021. www.srbija.gov.rs/vest/565375/srbija-severna-makedonija-i-albanija-potpisale-tri-dokumenta-za-bolju-regionalnu-saradnju.php (accessed September 15, 2021).

Vukšić, G. 2013. “Developing countries in competition for foreign investment.“ The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 22 (3): 351-376.