Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Western Balkan Countries
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major economic imbalances and impeded economic activity in all Western Balkan (WB) countries. This paper analyzes the strength of economic impact of the ongoing health crisis on key macroeconomic variables (GDP, public debt, fiscal balance, and unemployment) in the WB countries. In addition, the paper points out the main challenges that the economies of these countries will face in the years to come. The analysis has shown that the crisis slowed down the WB economies, but its intensity differed among the observed countries. The main economic challenges in the coming period relate to the further course and duration of the pandemic. Due to the great level of uncertainty, more detailed analysis of the crisis’ impact on the economic potential will be possible only after the end of the pandemic.
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Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel. 2021. “Simulating the Long-Term Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Sustainability of the Population-Economy-Environment”. Nexus. EconDisCliCha. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00094-3.
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Baker, Scott, Bloom, Nicholas, Davis, Steven, Terry Stephen. 2020a. “COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty.” NBER Working Paper No. 26983.
Baker, Scott, Farrokhnia R.A., Meyer, Steffen, Pagel, Michaela, Yannelis, Constantine. 2020b. “Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments”. National bureau of economic research, Working paper NO. 2020-55.
BIS. 2020. “Annual Economic Report, Containment Measures, Policy Interventions”. Basel: BIS.
BNP Paribas. 2020. “The Main Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19”. Retrieved from: https://cib.bnpparibas.com/think/the-main-macroeconomic-implications-of-covid-19_a-1-3738.html. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
Bonomi, Matteo, Uvalic, Milica. 2019. “The economic development of the Western Balkans - The importance of non-EU actors”. Routledge.
Bortz, Pablo, Michelena, Gabriel, Toledo, Fernando. 2020. “A Gathering of Storms: The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Balance of Payments of Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)”. International Journal of Political Economy, 49(4), 318-335, DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2020.1857586
Carletti, Elena, Claessens, Stijn, Fatas, Antonio, Vives, Xavier. 2020. “The Bank Business Model in the Post-Covid-19 World”. Centre for Economic Policy Research.
CEP. 2020. “The Western Balkans and COVID-19: Effects on Good Governance, Rule of Law and Civil Society”. Retrieved from: https://cep.org.rs/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/The-WB-and-the-COVID-19.pdf. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
Coibion, Olivier, Gorodnichenko, Yuriy,. Weber, Michael. 2020. “How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?”. National bureau of economic research, Working paper, August 2020.
Đuričin, Sonja, Beraha, Isidora. 2020. “The Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on Medium-sized Enterprises in Serbia”. Economic Analysis: Applied Research in Emerging Markets. Vol 53 No 1: 14-27
EMCDDA. 2021. “EMCDDA trend spotter briefing: Impact of COVID-19 on drug use and drug services in Western Balkans”. Retrieved from: https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/publications/ad-hoc-publication/impact-covid-19-drug-use-drug-services-western-balkans_en. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
Erić, Dejan., Đukić, Mališa, Bodroža, Duško. (2021). “Finansijska tržišta X.O.”. Data status, Beograd.
European Commission. 2021. “The sectoral impact of the COVID-19 crisis”. Retrieved from: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/48767/eg-note-sectoral-impact_fin.pdf. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
Firano, Zakaria, Fatine, Filali Adib. 2020. “The COVID-19: macroeconomics scenarii and role of containment in Morocco”. One Health, Volume 10, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100152.
Hofmann, Boris, Ilhyoc, Shim, Hyun, Song, Shin. 2020. “Emerging Market Economy Exchange Rates and Local Currency Bond Markets amid the COVID-19 Pandemic.” BIS Bulletin No. 5.
International Monetary Fund, 2020. “World Economic Outlook. October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent”. Washington DC.
International Monetary Fund, 2021. “World Economic Outlook. Spring 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries”. Washington DC.
International Monetary Fund. 2021. “Fiscal Monitor. Spring 2021: A Fair Shot”. Washington DC.
Ivanović, Maja, Vujanović, Nina, Kilibarda, Milica, Vlahović, Ana. 2021. “Analiza uticaja pandemije COVID-19 na ekonomiju i bankarski sistem Crne Gore”. Radna studija br. 29. Centralna banka Crne Gore.
King, Russell, Oruc, Nermin. 2019. “Editorial Introduction: Migration in the Western Balkans – Trends and Challenges”. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 21:1, 1-10, DOI: 10.1080/19448953.2018.1532682
KPMG. 2020. “COVID-19 and the global economy: With uncertainty comes eighter paralysis or opportunity”. Retrieved from: https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/06/covid-19-and-the-global-economy.html. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
Lazić, Milena, Jovanović, Olivera, Lazarević-Moravčević, Marija. 2021. “Women’s Entrepreneurship in the Wake of the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Serbia”, Journal of Women's Entrepreneurship and Education, 1-2: 56-69. https://doi.org/10.28934/jwee21.12.pp56-69.
Marijanović, Darko, Đukić Mihajlo, (2020). “Western Balkan Countries as an Attractive Investment Destination”. Economic Analysis Applied Research in Emerging Markets, 53/2020, no 2:109-120.
McKinsey. 2021. “The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment. Retrieved from: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
Montresor, Sandro, Quatraro, Francesco, Quatraro. 2020. “Green technologies and Smart Specialisation Strategies: a European patent-based analysis of the intertwining of technological relatedness and key enabling technologies”. Regional Studies, 54:10, 1354-1365, DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2019.1648784
Morron Salmeron, Adria, García Arenas, Javier. 2020. “The debt burden of the COVID-19 crisis”. Retrieved from: https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/debt-burden-covid-19-crisis. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
OECD. 2021. “The territorial impact of COVID-19: Managing the crisis and recovery across levels of government”. Retrieved from: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-territorial-impact-of-covid-19-managing-the-crisis-and-recovery-across-levels-of-government-a2c6abaf/#figure-d1e620. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
OECD. 2020. “The territorial impact of COVID-19: Managing the crisis across levels of government”. Retrieved from: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-territorial-impact-of-covid-19-managing-the-crisis-across-levels-of-government-d3e314e1/. Accessed: 10/2/2021..
Pavlović, Dejana, Bodroža, Duško, Vukmirović, Valentina. 2020. “The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 on the Serbia’s Labor Market: Statistics and Facts”. Economic Analysis: Applied Research in Emerging Markets, Vol 53 No 1: 1-13.
Petrović, Pavle, Arsić, Milojko, Nojković, Aleksandra. 2020. “Increasing public investment can be an effective policy in bad times: Evidence from emerging EU economies“. Economic Modelling, Vol. 94: 580-597.
Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel. 2021. “Simulating the Long-Term Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Sustainability of the Population-Economy-Environment”. Nexus. EconDisCliCha. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00094-3.
Prentice, Catherine, Altinay, Levent, Woodside, Arch. 2021. “Transformative service research and COVID-19”. The Service Industries Journal, 41:1-2, 1-8, DOI: 10.1080/02642069.2021.1883262
Stanceva Gigov, Iskra. 2020. “Impact of the Covid‐19 Outbreak on Macedonian Trade Flows”. Economic Analysis: Applied Research in Emerging Markets, 53(2): 156-167.
Santoalha, Artur, Boschma, Ron. 2021. “Diversifying in green technologies in European regions: does political support matter?”. Regional Studies, 55:2, 182-195, DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2020.1744122
SEE-6 Economic outlook. 2021. Institute of economic sciences Vol 7., No 1.
Song, Ligang, Yixiao, Zhou. 2020. “The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global Economy: What Does It Take to Turn Crisis into Opportunity?”. China & World Economy / 1–25, Vol. 28, No. 4, 2020.
UNCTAD. 2021. “World Investment Report 2021: Investing in sustainable recovery”. United Nations Publications, New York, USA.
Zaremba, Adam, Aharon, Y. David, Demir, Ender, Kizys, Renatas, Zawadka, Darius. 2021. “COVID-19, government policy responses, and stock market liquidity around the world: A note“. Research in International Business and Finance, 56: 101359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101359.
WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard. Retrieved from: worldometers.info, Accessed 10/28/2021.
World Bank. 2020a. “COVID-19 Crisis through a Migration Lens.” Migration and Development Brief No. 32.
World Bank, 2020. “Ekonomski i socijalni uticaj COVID-19, Izgled za Zapadni Balkan”. Zapadni Balkan – Redovni Ekonomski Izvještaj br.17. World Bank Group. Retrieved from: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/486361588146392647/WB-RER17-The-Economic-and-Social-Impact-of-COVID-19-Outlook-Hard-Times-Require-Good-Economics-Bosnian.pdf. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
World Bank. 2020. “Global Economic Prospects”. Retrieved from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects. Accessed: 10/2/2021.
World Bank, 2021. “Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.19 - Subdued Recovery”. https://doi.org/10.1596/35509.
World Bank Group. 2020. “The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 – Western Balkans Outlook”. Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.17. Retrieved from: https://euagenda.eu/upload/publications/the-economic-and-social-impact-of-covid-19-western-balkans-outlook.pdf. Accessed: 10/2/2021.