Does Real Income and Population Matter in Evaluating Domestic Trade Performance? Evidence from Nigeria

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Musa Narkoji
Emmanuel Enebeli
Yunah Bulus Bula
Seyi Akadiri


Domestic trade has been a key sector in the Nigerian economy in terms of economic sustainability, following its performance and resiliency in both tranquil and turbulent periods. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the period 2012Q3 to 2022Q3, this study examines the impact of factors driving trade growth in Nigeria. The findings show that growth in the country’s population and per capita income are the major factors driving domestic trade growth in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run periods. Also, changes in exchange rates positively impact domestic trade growth in the long-run period; information technology, in terms of growth in numbers of internet subscriptions, as well as trade openness, do not have a significant impact on trade growth. We suggest that the government expand internet coverage across the country and intentionally deepen the awareness of growing trade globalisation and its benefits to citizens and the nation’s economic growth.

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