Exchange Policy and Economic Growth: Effect of the Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment on the Growth of Tunisia
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Abstract
The collapse of the system of Bretton Woods pushed Tunisia adopted various policies of exchange to avoid imbalances of the balance of payments. Since, this country aimed to maintain or to improve its external competitiveness in order to balance its current account through the promotion of exports, this contribute to start again the economic growth. By specifying an equation of economic growth of Tunisia, it’s showed that the real effective exchange rate misalignment, indicator of external competitiveness, has negative effect on the economic growth. The fall of real effective exchange rate misalignment, these last years, then explained partly the stabilization of the growth rate of this country can especially since 2001 when the Tunisia softened its policy of exchange rate. A flexible policy of exchange is then desirable to start again the economic growth.
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Ben Marzouka, Tahar et Safra Mongi (1994). Monnaie et Finances Internationales : Approche Macroéconomique, l’Harmattan, Paris.
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Cassel, Karl Gustav (1922). Money and Foreign Exchange Rate after 1914, Mac Millan, New Work.
Chaabane, Abdelkader et Ghorbel Abdelfettah. 2005. “L’effet d’Eviction : Fondements Théorique et Vérification Empirique pour le Cas de la Tunisie”, Projet FEMISE intitulé : « Analyse des Investissements Publics de Croissance et les Difficultés de leur Financement : Etude des Cas de Cinq Pays Partenaires Méditerranéens : Maroc, Tunisie, Turquie, Egypte, Liban », FEM 22-26. Nice.
Cottani, Joakim, Cavallo Domingo and Khan M Shahbaz. 1990. “Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol 39, 61-76.
Domaç, Ilker and Shabsigh Ghiat. 1999. “Real Exchange Rate Behaviour and Economic Rate Growth: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia”, IMF Working Paper, WP/99/40. Washington D.C, 10-11.
Dufrenot, Gilles, Mathieu Laurent et Mignon Valérie. 2001. “La détermination des Taux de Change Réel d’Equilibre : Une Revue de la Littérature Théorique et Empirique Récente», Université Paris 12, Laboratoire Erudite.
Edwards, Sebastian. 1989. “Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation and Adjustment”, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Edwards, Sebastian. 1990. “Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Concepts and Measurement”, in TJ Grennes, ed., International Financial Markets and Agricultural Trade, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.
El Badawi, Ibrahim (1994). Estimating long run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, in Williamson, J. (Editor). Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates, Institute for International Economics. Washington D.C.
Engle, Robert eand Granger Clive (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica.
IMF. 2003. “Tunisia: 2003 Article IV Consultation –Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public information notice on the executive board discussion; and statement by the executive director for Tunisia”, IMF country report n°03/259. Washington D.C, 12.
IMF. 2002. “Tunisia’s experience with real exchange rate targeting and the transition to a flexible exchange rate regime”, IMF Working paper. Washington D.C, 3-7.
Gabsi, Foued Badr and Abdelkafi, Rami. 2005. « Niveaux d’Education et Croissance Economique en Tunisie”, Projet FEMISE intitulé : « Analyse des Investissements Publics de Croissance et les Difficultés de leur Financement : Etude des cas de Cinq Pays Partenaires Méditerranéens : Maroc, Tunisie, Turquie, Egypte, Liban », FEM 22-26. Nice.
Ghura, Dhaneshwar and Grennes Thomas. 1993. “The Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Performence in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Journal of Development Economics, vol.42, 155-174.
Hadj Amor, Thouraya (2007). Variabilité du taux de change réel, intégration financière internationale et croissance économique : une application aux économies émergentes. Thèse de doctorat à l’université de Nice Sophia Antipolis, CEMAFI, 158-171.
Johansen, Soren. 1988. “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Kamar, Bassem (2005). Politique de change et globalisation : le cas de l’Egypte, l’Harmattan. Paris, 217-257.
Linjouom, Mireille. 2004. «Estimation du Taux de Change Réel d’Equilibre et Choix d’un Régime de Change pour le Cameroun », Cahier de Recherche EURI et CO n°2004-03, Université Paris Dauphine.
Razin, Ofair and Collins, Susan. 1997. “Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth”, NBER Working paper n°W6174.
Sfaxi Benahji, Hend. 2008. “Choix des politiques de change dans les pays en développement: Etude de la compétitivité de la Tunisie”, Panoeconomicus, n°3, 353-367.
Williamson, Jean (editor) (1994). Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C.
Xiaopu, Zhang. 2002. “Equilibrium and Misalignment : An assessment of the RMB Exchange Rate from 1978 to 1999”, Working paper n°127, Centre for Research on Economic Development and Policy Reform, Stanford University, 8.