Evaluation of Population Projections for Serbia 2011-2041 after the 2022 Census Results
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Abstract
Following the 2022 Population Census, the first assessment of Serbia's official population projections based on data from the 2011 Census and other vital statistics and migration sources has become feasible. According to the Census results, the population of Serbia in 2022 is approximately 2.3% below the projected values for that year, according to the closest projection variant – the constant variant. This paper explores the differences in terms of projected and realized values of fertility, mortality, and migration balance. Hypotheses regarding the total fertility rate and the number of live births were largely confirmed. However, a notable deviation was observed in mortality rates, primarily attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic period, during which life expectancy decreased by nearly two years. Apart from the pandemic's effect, the deviation between projected and realized population values is also due to the assumption of a positive migration balance for the period 2011-2022. Contrary to this optimistic assumption, the vital statistics method reveals negative external migration during this period.
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