Economic Determinants of Export Diversification in Algeria: An Empirical Analysis through Quantile Regression
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study aims to identify the key economic determinants of export diversification in Algeria, a rentier state, over the period 1995–2022. Using annual data from various official sources, a quantile regression model is employed to assess the heterogeneous effects of selected variables across different levels of export diversification. The results show that foreign direct investment does not support export diversification, while oil rents and trade openness are factors that hinder the process. Conversely, domestic investment and manufacturing exports contribute positively to a more diversified export structure. The study contributes to the literature by offering new insights into how structural economic factors shape diversification patterns in resource-rich countries, emphasizing the role of targeted investment and industrial development policies in reducing dependence on natural resources.
Article Details
Section
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Once the manuscript is accepted for publication, authors shall transfer the copyright to the publisher. If the submitted manuscript is not accepted for printing by the journal, the authors shall retain all their rights. The following rights on the manuscript are transferred to the publisher, including any supplementary materials and any parts, extracts or elements of the manuscript:
- the right to reproduce and distribute the manuscript in printed form, including print-on-demand;
- the right to print prepublications, reprints and special editions of the manuscript;
- the right to translate the manuscript into other languages;
- the right to reproduce the manuscript using photomechanical or similar means including, but not limited to photocopy, and the right to distribute these copies;
- the right to reproduce and distribute the manuscript electronically or optically using and all data carriers or storage media, and especially in machine readable/digitalized form on data carriers such as hard drive, CD-ROM, DVD, Blu-ray Disc (BD), Mini Disc, data tapes, and the right to reproduce and distribute the article via these data carriers;
- the right to store the manuscript in databases, including online databases, as well as the right to transmit the manuscript in all technical systems and modes;
- the right to make the manuscript available to the public or to closed user groups on individual demand, for use on monitors or other readers (including e-books), and in printable form for the user, either via the Internet, online service, or via internal or external networks.
References
Abiola, O. (2024). The Role of the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria's Export Diversification Drive (1985-2022). SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:https://ssrn.com/abstract=4723097
Agosin, M., Alvarez, R., & Bravo-Ortega, C. (2011). Determinants of export diversification around the world: 1962–2000. The World Economy, 35(3), pp. 295–315. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01395.x
Arawomo, D., Oyelade, A., & Tella, A. (2014). Determinants of export diversification in nigeria: Any special role for foreign direct investment (FDI)? Journal of Economics and Business Research, 20(1), pp. 21-33.
Brock, W. A., Dechert, W. D., & Scheinkman, J. A. (1996). A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension. v. 15, n. 3, p. Econometric Reviews, 15(3), pp. 197-235.
Bulut, E., & Yaşar, Z. (2023). Determinants Of Export Performance In Emerging Market Economies: New Evidence From A Panel Quantile Regression Model. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 73(1), pp. 453–472. doi:HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1213878
Cadot, O., Carrère, C., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export Diversification: What’s Behind The Hump? The Review Of Economics And Statistics, 93(2), pp. 590–605. doi:Http://Www.Jstor.Org/Stable/23015956
Campêlo, A. (2023). Auto-Evaluation De La Santé Et De La Productivité Individuelles: Une Analyse Empirique Par Régression Quantile. Journal brésilien des affaires, 5(3), pp. 1772-1788. doi:https://doi.org/10.34140/bjbv5n3-022
Canada Statistics. (2018). Mesure de la diversification des exportations canadiennes. Ottawa: statistiques canada.
Chellai, F. (2024). Reserves, prices, and policy: An empirical analysis of strategic crop reserves in Arab nations. Economic and Regional Studies, 17(2), pp. 207-221. doi:https://doi.org/10.2478/ers-2024-0012
Christophe, C., & Nicole, M. (2012). La Diversification Des Exportations En Zone Franc: Degré, Sophistication Et Dynamique. Paris: Macro Dev.
Cristina, P., & Dominico, S. (2014). Multiple Linear Regression Model Used in Economic Analyses. Romanian Statistical Review, 24(4).
Diop, M. (2019). Facteurs De Diversifications Des Exportations: Une Analyse Empirique Cas Des Pays De L'UEMOA. Finance & Finance Internationale, 14, pp. 1-21.
Djaha, A. (2021). Concentration ou diversification des exportations: quel est le chemin à suivre?. PhD diss. Sherbrook University.
Eboulet, E., & Matei, A. (2013). Application de la régression quantile et ses tests statistiques sur les données PISA en Suisse romande. Neuchatel: Institut de recherche et de documentation pédagogique,.
Elhassan, T., & Braima, B. (2020). Impact of Khartoum Stock Exchange market performance on economic growth: An autoregressive distributed lag ARDL bounds testing model. Economies, MDPI, 8(4), 1-16. doi:10.3390/economies8040086
Handoyo, R., Solihin, S., & Ibrahim, K. (2021). Determinants Of Export Diversification In Developing Countries. Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, 4, pp. 720-731. doi:https://doi.org/10.7232/iems.2021.20.4.720
Jansen , M., Peters, R., & Manuel Salazar, J. (2011). Trade and employment: From myths to facts. Geneva: International Labour Office. Récupéré sur https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_162297.pdf
Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), pp. 33-50. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
Koenker, R., & Machado, J. (1999). Goodness of Fit and Related Inference Processes for Quantile Regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(448), pp. 1296–1310. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10473882
M.Hashem, P., Yongcheol, S., & J.Smith, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of level Relationships. journal of applied econometrics, 16(13), 289–326. doi:10.1002/jae.616
Mansour, M. (2015). La malédiction des ressources naturelles et les moyens de l'éviter. Articles Scientifiques et Publications.
McMillen, D. (2013). Quantile regression for spatial data. (Daniel, Trad.) SpringerBriefs in Regional Science. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31818-2
Michaely, M. (1958). Concentration of Exports and Imports: An International Comparison. The Economic Journal, 68, pp. 722–736. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2227283
Mubeen, N., & Ahmad, N. (2016). Towards measurement and determinants of export diversification: An empirical analysis of pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 10(3), pp. 588-605.
National Institute of Statistics. (2025, 01 15). Récupéré sur Finance Publique: https://www.ons.dz/spip.php?page=recherche&recherche=finance
Oliveira, H., Jegu, E., & Santos, V. (2020). Dynamics And Determinants Of Export Diversification In Brazil From 2003 To 2013. Economia E Sociedade, 29(1), pp. 29–51. doi:Https://Doi.Org/10.1590/1982-3533.2020v29n1art02
Organisation des Nations Unies. (2017). Diversification des exportations algeriennes: defis et perspectives. Addis Abeba: ONU.
Osakwe, P. N., & Kilolo, J.-M. (2018). What drives export diversification? New evidence from a panel of developing countries. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Pauline , & Xavier. (2013). La regression quantile en pratique. Paris: INSEE.
Ramsey, J. (1969). Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least-Squares Regression Analysis. 31(2), pp. 350–371. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1969.tb00796.x
Rousseeuw, P., & Leroy, A. (1987). Robust regression and outlier detection. . Wiley.
Singer, H. (1950). The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries. The American Economic Review, 40(2), pp. 473–485. doi: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1818065
Touati, K., & Keddari, N. (2022). Déterminants de la diversification des exportations en Algérie: Une analyse empirique. Revue scientifique Avenir économique, 10(1), pp. 160-181.
Tukey, J. (1977). Exploratory data analysis. Addison-Wesley.
Unctad. (2019). Tout sur les indicateurs. Genève: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. doi:https://unctadstat.unctad.org/FR/
White, H. (1982). Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Mis specified Models. Econometrica, 50(1), pp. 1-25.