Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation

Main Article Content

Ana Mugoša
Saša Popović

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevance of dividend discount model, i.e. its specific form in stock price estimation known as Gordon growth model. The expected dividends can be a measure of cash flows returned to the stockholder. In this context, the model is useful for assessment of how risk factors, such as interest rates and changing inflation rates, affect stock returns. This is especially important in case when investors are value oriented, i.e. when expected dividends are their main investing drivers. We compared the estimated with the actual stock price values and tested the statistical significance of price differences in 199 publicly traded European companies for the period 2010-2013. Statistical difference between pairs of price series (actual and estimated) was tested using Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests of median and distribution equality. The hypothesis that Gordon growth model cannot be reliable measure of stock price valuation on European equity market over period of 2010-2013 due to influence of the global financial crisis was rejected with 95% confidence. Gordon growth model has proven to be reliable measure of stock price valuation even over period of strong global financial crisis influence.


 

Article Details

Section
Articles

References

Abarbanell, Jeffrey and Brian Bushee. 1997. “Fundamental Analysis, Future Earnings, and Stock Prices”, Journal of Accounting Research, 35(1): 1-24.
Aczel, Amir. 1999.Complete Business Statistics. McGraw-Hill International Editions, fourth ed.
Baker, Malcolm and Jeffrey Wurgler. 2004. “Appearing and Disappearing Dividends: The Link to Catering Incentives”, Journal of Financial Economics, 73(2): 271–288.
Brav, Alon, John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey and Roni Michaely. 2005. “Payout policy in the 21st century”, Journal of Financial Economics, 77(3): 483-527.
Damodaran, Aswath. 2004.Damodaran on Valuation, John Wiley, New York.
Damodaran, Aswath. 2006. “Valuation Approaches and Metrics: A Survey of the Theory and Evidence”, Stern School of Business Research paper, pp. 1-77.
DeAngelo, Harry, Linda DeAngelo and Douglas Skinner. 2004. “Are Dividends Disappearing? Dividend Concentration and the Consolidation of Earnings”, Journal of Financial Economics, 72(3): 425–456.
European Central Bank. 2014.https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/yc (accessed April 14, 2014)
Fama, Eugene and Kenneth French. 1988. “Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns”, Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1): 3-25.
Fama, Eugene and Kenneth French. 2001. “Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?”, Journal of Financial Economics, 60(1): 3–44.
Foerster, Stephen R. and Stephen G. Sapp. 2006. “Dividends and Stock Valuation: A Study from the Nineteenth to the Twenty-First Century”, Ivey School of Business Working Paper, pp.1-49.
Foerster, Stephen R. and Stephen G. Sapp. 2005. “The Dividend Discount Model in the Long-Run: A Clinical Study”, Journal of Applied Finance, 15(2): 55-75.
Fuller, Russell J. and Chi-Cheng Hsia. 1984. “A Simplified Common Stock Valuation Model”, The Financial Analysts Journal, 40(5): 49-56.
Gordon, Myron J. 1959. “Dividends, Earnings and Stock Prices”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 41(2): 99-105.
Gordon, Myron J. and Eli Shapiro. 1956. “Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit”, Management Science, 3(1): 102–110.
Grullon, Gustavo and Roni Michaely. 2002 “Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis”, Journal of Finance, 57(4): 1649–1684.
Lev, Baruch and Ramu S. Thiagarajan, S. R., 1993, “Fundamental Information Analysis”, Journal of Accounting Research, 31(2): 190-215.
Lintner, John. 1956. “Distribution of Incomes of Corporations Among Dividends, Retained Earnings and Taxes”, The American Economic Review, 46(2): 97-113.
Meyer, Patrick J. and Michael A. Seaman. 2013. “A Comparison of the Exact Kruskal-Wallis Distribution to Asymptotic Approximations for All Sample Sizes Up to 105”, Journal of Experimental Education, 81(2): 139-156.
New York University Stern, http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html (accessed April 13, 2014)
New York University Stern, http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/ddm.pdf (accessed April 29, 2014)
Ou, Jane A. and Stephen H. Penman. 1989. “Accounting Measurement, Price-Earnings Ratio, and the Information Content of Security Prices”, Journal of Accounting Research, 27(Supplement): 111-144.
Ross, Stephen A., Randolph W. Westerfield, R. and Jeffrey Jaffe. 2002.Corporate Finance, McGraw-Hill, 6th edition.
Shiller, Robert J. 1981. “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?”, The American Economic Review, 71(3): 421-436.
Taheri, Mohmoud S. and Gholamreza Hesamian. 2013. “A Generalization of the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test and its Applications”, Statistical Papers, 54(2): 457-470.