Unit roots in the Yugoslav macroeconomic time series

Main Article Content

Zorica Vujošević

Abstract

The paper evaluates the nature of the nonstationarity in some Yugoslav macroeconomic time series. The application of most-comonly used tests for the discrimination between trend-stationalry and difference-stationary class of models show that of models shows that most of the series considered contain a unit-root with a drift. The series are also tested for structural break. It has emerged only with respect of inflation rate. Thus, the use of ordinary unit-root tests shows that tural break, different procedure is employed, which brings the conclusion that inflation rate is trend-stationary process with structural change in its level.

Article Details

Section
Articles

References

Campbell, J. Y., N. G. Mankiw (1987): Permanent and Transitory Compo¬nents in Macroeconomic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, 77.
Dickey, D. A., W. A. Fuller (1979): Distribution of the Estimators for Auto¬regressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74.
Dickey, D. A., W. A. Fuller (1981): Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Auto¬regressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49.
Dickey, D. A., W. R. Bell, R. B. Miller (1986): Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Test and Implication, The American Statistician, 40.
Engle, R. F., C. W. J. Granger (1987): Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, 55.
Fuller, W. A. (1976): Introduction to Statistical Time Series, New York, John Wiley.
Nelson, C. R., I. Plosser (1982): Trends and Random Walks in Macroecono¬mic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications, Representation, Estimation and Testing, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10.
Pagan, A. R., M. R. Wichen (1989): A Survey of Some Recent Econometric Methods, The Economic Journal, 99.
Perron, P. (1988); Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12.
Perron, P. (1989): The Great Crash, the Oil Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, 57.
Perron, P. (1990): Tests of Joint Hypothesis for Time Series Regression with a Unit Root, Advances in Economics, 8.
Perron, P. (1990): Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 8.
Phillips, P.C.B. (1987): Time Series Regression with Unit Root, Economet¬rica, 55.
Phillips, P.C.B., P. Perron (1988): Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrica, 75.
Stock, J. H., M. W. Watson (1986): Testing for Common Trends, Working Papers, 1222, Harvard University.
Stock, J. H., M. W. Watson (1989): Interpreting the Evidence on Money Income Causality, Journal of Econometrics, 40.
Schwert, W. (1989): Testing for Units Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation, Series Regression, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7.
Said, S. E., D. A. Dickey (1984): Testing for Units Roots in ARMA models of Unknown Order, Biometrica, 71.