Imports versus Domestic Production and the Food Security Dilemma in the Arab World: Evidence from a Panel CS-ARDL Approach
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study examines the determinants of food security in a panel of eleven Arab countries over the period 2000–2023 using the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach. The aim is to explore both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships affecting food self-sufficiency. The results indicate that per capita income exerts a negative effect in the short run, reflecting changing consumption patterns and greater reliance on food imports, while agricultural production emerges as the most consistent positive driver of food self-sufficiency. Short-run dynamics also confirm a rapid adjustment process, with the error correction term (ECT = –1.3569, p < 0.01) indicating strong and more-than-complete convergence toward equilibrium. In the long run, agricultural value added is the only variable with a robust and significant influence, underscoring the strategic importance of the agricultural sector for sustainable food security. These findings highlight the structural vulnerability of food systems reliant on imports and call for policies aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity, promoting self-reliance, and reducing exposure to volatile international food markets.
Article Details
Issue
Section
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Once the manuscript is accepted for publication, authors shall transfer the copyright to the publisher. If the submitted manuscript is not accepted for printing by the journal, the authors shall retain all their rights. The following rights on the manuscript are transferred to the publisher, including any supplementary materials and any parts, extracts or elements of the manuscript:
- the right to reproduce and distribute the manuscript in printed form, including print-on-demand;
- the right to print prepublications, reprints and special editions of the manuscript;
- the right to translate the manuscript into other languages;
- the right to reproduce the manuscript using photomechanical or similar means including, but not limited to photocopy, and the right to distribute these copies;
- the right to reproduce and distribute the manuscript electronically or optically using and all data carriers or storage media, and especially in machine readable/digitalized form on data carriers such as hard drive, CD-ROM, DVD, Blu-ray Disc (BD), Mini Disc, data tapes, and the right to reproduce and distribute the article via these data carriers;
- the right to store the manuscript in databases, including online databases, as well as the right to transmit the manuscript in all technical systems and modes;
- the right to make the manuscript available to the public or to closed user groups on individual demand, for use on monitors or other readers (including e-books), and in printable form for the user, either via the Internet, online service, or via internal or external networks.
References
Agwu, A. E., Dimelu, M., & Madukwe, M. (2008). lInnovation system approach to agricultural development: Policy implications for agricultural. AFRICANJournal Biotechnology, 7(11), 1604-1611. 1604-http://dx.doi.org/10.5897/AJB08.289
Barel Shaked, S., & Buda, E. (2025). Charting resilience: a typology of food self sufficiency in OECD nations. Agriculture & Food Security, 14(19). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-025-00537-0
Akramov, K. T., & Shreedhar. (2012). Economic Development, External Shocks, and Food Security in Tajikistan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1163, 1-49. https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/1163.html
Blackburne, & W. Frank. (2007). Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels. The Stata Journal, 7(2), 197-208. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0700700204
Boussard, J. M., Gérard, F., & Piketty, M. G. (2006). Food security and agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa: Building a case for more public support. FAO. https://www.fao.org/4/a0788e/a0788e.pdf
Ceesay, E. K., & Ndiaye, M. B. (2022). Climate change, food security and economic growth nexus in the Gambia:. Research in Globalization, 5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2022.100089
Christiaensen, L., Demery, L., & Kuhl, J. (2011). The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction: An empirical perspective. Journal of Development Economics, 96(2), 239-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.10.006
Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. (2015). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 188(2), 393-420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.007
Dardeer, M., & Shaheen, R. (2025). Structural determinants of food price inflation and food security implications: Evidence from GCC panel data. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications, 12, Article 548. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-06148-1
Dekkiche, D., Saidi, M., & Cherayett , F. (2025). Determinants of food security in developing countries:An econometric study on a sample of Arab and African Countries using Panel-ARDL Model. South Florida Journal of Development, 6(6). 10.46932/sfjdv6n6-064
Derouez, F., & Adel , I. (2024). Sustainable Food Security: Balancing Desalination, Climate Change, and Population Growth in Five Arab Countries Using ARDL and VECM. Sustainability, 16(6). https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/6/2302
Deteix, L., Salou, T., & Loiseau, E. (2024). Quantifying food consumption supply risk: An analysis across countries and agricultural products. Global Food Security, 41, 100764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100764.
Fan, L., Aspy, N. N., Yesmin Smrity, D., Dewan, M. F., Kibria, M. G., & Haseeb, M. (2024). Moving towards food security in South Asian region: Assessing the role of agricultural trade openness, production and employment. Global Food Security. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33522
FAO. (2021). he State of Food and Agriculture 2021: Making agri-food systems more resilient to shocks and stresses. FAO. https://openknowledge.fao.org/items/437c1215-556b-4161-9af6-68163f5a1f84
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2023). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023: Urbanization. agrifood systems transformation and healthy diets across the rural–urban continuum. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc3017en
Frimpong, T. D., Mintodê , N., & Tony , T. (2024). Assessing the impact of CO2 emissions, food security and agriculture expansion on economic growth: a panel ARDL analysis. Discover Sustainability, 5(424). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s43621-024-00630-7
Gauchan, D. (2008). Agricultural Development in Nepal: Contribution to Economic Growth, Food Security and Poverty Reduction. Socio-Economic Development Panorama, 1(3), 49-64. https://www.nepjol.info/index.php/sedp/article/view/1173
Herrmann, M. (2009). Food security and agricultural development in times of high commodity prices. (U. D. 196, Ed.) UNCTAD Discussion Papers(193). https://ideas.repec.org/p/unc/dispap/196.html
HLPE, H. L. (2016). Sustainable agricultural development for food security and nutrition: What roles for livestock? FAO. Rome: Report of the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food. https://openknowledge.fao.org/items/bf82bfbc-60a1-42e4-90f4-ec4f73a2b7a2
Kidane, W., Maetz, M., & Dardel, P. (2006). Food security and agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa: Strategic considerations. FAO. https://www.fao.org/4/a0788e/a0788e.pdf
Manap, N. M., & Ismail, W. (2019). FOOD SECURITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. International Journal of Modern Trends in Social Sciences, 2(8), 108-118. https://gaexcellence.com/ijmtss/article/view/684
Ngassam, S. B., Douanla, a., & Asongu, i. (2025). Natural Resource and Food Import Dependence of Africa: Can Democracy Slowdown Dependence? Sustainable Development, 33(3). https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3326
Ofana, O. G., Charles, E., & Eko , O. (2016). CONSTRAINTS TO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA. International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, 4(2), 1-15. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348591892_CONSTRAINTS_TO_AGRICULTURAL_DEVELOPMENT_IN_NIGERIA
Pesaran. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346.
Pesaran, M. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240. https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
Pesaran, M., & Smith, R. P. (1995). Estimation of long run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panels. (University of Cambridge, Ed.) Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F
Rezgar, M., & Almojel, S. (2025). Elasticities of Food Import Demand in Arab Countries:Implications for Food Security and Policy. Sustainability, 17(14). https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146271
Segbefia et al, E. (2023). A step towards food security: The effect of carbon emission andthe moderating influence of human capital. Evidence fromAnglophone countries. Heliyon, 9(12). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22171
Shuaibu, M., & Popoola Timothy, O. (2016). Determinants of Human Capital Development in Africa: A Panel Data Analysis. Quarterly Journal OeconomiA copernicana, 7(4). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312035735_DETERMINANTS_OF_HUMAN_CAPITAL_DEVELOPMENT_IN_AFRICA_A_PANEL_DATA_ANALYSIS
Sun, Z., & Zhang, D. (2021). Impact of Trade Openness on Food Security: Evidence from Panel Data for Central Asian Countries. MDPI, 10(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/foods10123012
United Nations. (2022). World Population Prospects 2022. (Population Division, Ed.) Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf
Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
World Bank. (2022). World Development Report 2022: Finance for an equitable recovery. DC: World Bank. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3963937?v=pdf
Yamagata, T., & Pesaran, M. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
Yilmaz, A. (2024). DO GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND POLITICAL STABILITY DRIVE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS? NEW EVIDENCE FROM DYNAMIC PANEL CS-ARDL MODEL. Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, 9(1), 61-87. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1405599